The Conference Board’s leading US economic index fell in December, falling 1.0% to 110.5 (2016 = 100). The December drop follows his 1.1% drop in November.
“The US LEI plummeted again in December, which continues to signal a short-term recession for the US economy,” said Ataman Ozildirim, Senior Director of Economics at The Conference Board.
“December saw broad-based weakness in leading indicators, pointing to worsening conditions in the labor market, manufacturing, housing, and financial markets in the coming months.”
The LEI is now down 4.2% in the six months from June 2022 to December. This is a steeper drop than the 1.9% drop in the six months from December 2021 to June 2022.
“Macroeconomic activity is likely to turn negative in the coming quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023,” he said.